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Callum McCreadie's avatar

I would agree with 5. Cultural decline and 3. Excessive regulation (at least in the west). In 5 minutes I could find several examples where regulation is (insanely) stifling innovation

1. SpaceX starship being delayed by nearly year because of “Environmental Review”. (It’s in the middle of the desert?)

2. FDA stifling innovation: https://sciencehistory.org/stories/magazine/the-death-of-jesse-gelsinger-20-years-later/

Is the so-called “Faustian Spirit” (https://counter-currents.com/2013/06/the-faustian-spirit/) still well and alive in Europe? I often think of the Tibetans being confused as to why anyone would attempt to climb Everest. "Because it's there." - Mallory.

I would contend with 6. Working hours are declining. The hours being put towards productive tasks as opposed to just surviving must be greater in aggregate when you factor in India, China etc…

I saw Fergus “restacked” your post. I would be inclined to agree w/ him that University and how research is conducted is significantly to blame. In short

+ Peer Review (Einstein famously insulted by peer review) sucks. Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yckPYJgjXeY. A math prof writes a paper in ~ 2 months. Takes nearly 2 years to get published. Compare this to how much work was achieved in weeks, when the superconductor paper was published on arXiv. We need to shorten feedback loops

+ Research Agencies/ Grant Agencies. See the effect your mates Patrick/Tyler had with fast grants vs NIH, NHS etc…(Anything groundbreaking in the past 100 years is near guaranteed to be have funded by DARPA. It’s budget is only ~4 billlion!)

+ Wrong incentives in Academia only way to climb is become an Administrator and empire build taking on grad students doing iterative work.

+ More places nowadays for the insanely talented to go vs the Victorian Era. Would Maxwell be working in a Hedge Fund nowadays?

I would highly recommend the below, Great Post Discussing what’s gone wrong in Academia:

https://jameswphillips.substack.com/p/ucl-talk-government-science-and-the

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Robert Tolan's avatar

Thanks for putting your thoughts regarding the Great Stagnation out there, Sam. It would be great to hear more about your thoughts on demography and economic growth, as you know we were promised flying cars during a baby boom! One thing I have noticed is that there seems to have been an 'ageing' of the typical science PhD graduate, the same goes for the humanities, though I will restrict my question to science to make responding less time consuming.

Controlling for cultural factors, to what extent do you think demographics might feed into the TFP data? Internet and universities aside, the great leaps in science you mention were made by comparatively young people: Penzias and Wilson were just 31 and 28 years old respectively when they stumbled upon cosmic microwave background radiation.

Notably, structured PhD programmes are a relatively recent phenomenon and might feed into the university bureaucracy you mention - maybe if budding science PhD students could do sufficient work in one or two years, rather than having to stick to a four-year PhD track, they might be more likely to do frontier defining work.

A flaw in my reasoning here is that it has become more time consuming to understand a subfield given the breadth of knowledge that now exists, which means it takes longer to gain the expertise a PhD graduate is expected to have in their area, so feel free to critique my thoughts on this.

I really enjoyed reading this piece so thanks again for sharing it.

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